Global ESG sukuk issuance is expected to continue rising over Q4, 24-2025, driven by investor demand, funding and diversification goals, and government sustainability initiatives in some Muslim-majority countries, Fitch Ratings says.

 

The expected US Federal Reserve rate cuts to 4.5% at end-2024 and 3.5% at end-2025 could further improve financing conditions and support issuances.

 

"ESG sukuk issuance is on a promising upward trajectory, with sukuk becoming a key ESG funding tool in emerging markets (EM). We expect ESG sukuk to exceed $50 billion by 2025, with favourable financing conditions anticipated and sound credit, with 99% of Fitch-rated ESG sukuk being investment-grade," said Bashar Al Natoor, Global Head of Islamic Finance at Fitch Ratings. "However, challenges remain, include a weakening sustainability drive, sharia-compliance complexities, geopolitical risks and oil volatilities."

 

17.2pc of all ESG debt issued in EM

Sukuk were 17.2% of all ESG debt issued in EM (excluding China) in 9M24 (US dollar only). Also, 40% of all ESG bonds and sukuk in EM (outside China) were issued by the core Islamic finance markets – a share that Fitch expects to rise.

 

Demand from ESG-sensitive international investors could help plug the funding gap for longer tenors. A recent example is the Indonesian sovereign sukuk (BBB). The 30-year green sukuk tranche attracted 90% investors from Europe, the US and Asia (excluding Malaysia and Indonesia), with more than 85% coming from non-bank investors. Middle Eastern and Malaysian investors contributed only 9% to the 30-year green sukuk tranche, but over 50% for the five-year and 10-year non-green sukuk tranches.

 

ESG-sukuk were only 5% of global sukuk outstanding, but had expanded 34% yoy to $44.6 billion outstanding at end-Q3 24 (all currencies), outpacing the global sukuk growth (8.7%). Among the GCC countries, ESG debt reached $46.3 billion outstanding, with 42% in sukuk. Fitch rates over 90% of all ESG-sukuk (hard currency).--TradeArabia News Service